Crazy as it sounds, there are voices in the industry seriously speculating that some construction wages are set to double. Let's take a look at what they're on about - and why it might not be the good news it sounds like.

You've almost certainly heard us talk before about the "skills shortfall" that's been growing in construction in recent years. In simple terms, there just isn't enough new blood coming into the trade. With an ageing workforce and too few skilled youngsters getting into the construction game, that's a dangerous situation. By some predictions, we're already looking at a 25% drop in the labour pool over the next decade. Meanwhile, we're all waiting for the other Brexit boot to drop. It's still far from clear what the UK's departure from the EU means for construction. One thing that's pretty likely, though, is fewer European workers picking up the slack.

Construction is set to be a key economic battleground for the UK in the near future. The government has set out huge plans for the industry's supply chain. They're aiming at a 33% reduction in costs and 50% reductions in completion times and greenhouse gas emissions. We're talking about a massive change in how the industry operates. It's going to take innovation and determination to hits these goals, but it's also going to take manpower. Right now, it's hard to be optimistic about that manpower being available.

Once you understand what's at stake here, the rest becomes a simple matter of supply and demand. It's estimated that construction needs to recruit another 400,000 people a year until 2021 to keep up with demand. That's just over 45 new workers hired every hour for 4 years! The basic laws of economics mean that when demand outstrips supply, the price goes up - and that means wage rises. The latest prediction from industry consultant Arcadis calls this the rise of the "MINTED" workforce. That stands for "Most In Need Trades Earning Double".

If you think this all sounds like good news, then you probably aren't thinking long-term enough. Arcadis believes it'll take tens of thousands of new Construction Directors to get the job done. That's on top of several thousand each of Civil Engineers and Quantity Surveyors. Those figures don't even include the people doing the on site building work - bricklayers, plumbers, electricians and so on.

Back in 2010, the number of people looking for construction work topped 218,000. That number hasn't even gone above 100,000 since 2014, though. Those rising wages might look good on paper, but they paint a picture of an industry facing a crisis.

The current focus on education, apprenticeships and technology are all strong moves, but there's no magic bullet here. It's not just about getting the needed skills into the right hands. You've also got to attract people to a career in construction, and stop them wandering off to other fields. Looking at it from the other side, reducing the industry's reliance on manpower is also an option. That's got consequences of its own, of course.

For now, the main thing to realise is that a balance needs to be struck, somehow. Skills shortfalls aren't healthy for any business. When they happen in a field as critical as construction, it takes an industry-wide effort to fix the problem.

If you're currently working in construction and need any help with tax refunds or CIS Tax Returns, get in touch now.